Published
Danish expert investigates cost overruns in Dutch mega projects
By Maarten van der Sanden
Lying pays off. According to prof.dr. Bent Flyvbjerg of
Delft
University of Technology, that's how one can characterize the
planning of some mega projects.
In his inaugural speech on Wednesday September 26th, he explains why
the costs of large-scale projects, such as High Speed Rail projects,
new motorways, and the Channel Tunnel, systematically turn out to be
higher than was forecast. In the coming years the Danish professor
will focus on cost overruns in major Dutch projects.
Flyvbjerg is an international researcher focusing on
cost overruns in
mega projects, such as the TGV and the "Big Dig" in
found a similar pattern in more than twenty countries: the costs of
these projects very often turn out to be higher than was planned, on
average more than 30 percent higher. In the
is a prime example. It has a cost overrun of 45 percent. Flyvbjerg
was questioned as an expert by the temporary committee infrastructure
projects (Tijdelijke Commissie
Infrastructuurprojecten (2004)) which
conducted research into the HSL-South and other projects.
Explanations for the systematic cost overruns, are
according to
Flyvbjerg ungrounded optimism among planners but also
strategic
motives. The lower the costs presented, the higher the chances
of the project actually taking place: "lying pays off". This is
called "inverted Darwinism" by the professor, or "survival of the
unfittest", because the projects that
look best on paper have the
largest cost overruns and demand shortfalls.
According to Flyvbjerg, one of the (partial) remedies
against cost
overruns is reference class forecasting. This is a method with
which the costs of a project are estimated by comparing it to
similar projects in the past. Flyvbjerg has applied
this method to
the "Zuiderzeelijn" project. This resulted
in a cost estimate that
was 40 percent higher than previous estimates. Because of this the
project is now being re-evaluated.
In the coming years Flyvbjerg, who is a part-time
professor at the
faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of
Technology, will research mega projects in the
surprise, there is little systematic knowledge about this subject.
We do not know if the general conclusions found in other countries
apply to the
especially interesting in this respect because of the high density
of infrastructures."
Flyvbjerg detects a change in attitude towards mega
projects. "The
realisation that things have to change is sinking
in." Flyvbjerg
receives full support of the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and
Water Management which finances the chair. In about two to three
years, he hopes to present results on Dutch mega projects.
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[BATN: Further info]: http://www.tudelft.nl