HSR Ridership Projections
April 6th, 2008
Why The California High Speed Rail Project Is Doomed to Economic Chaos
CHSRA projects 119,000,000 riders per year on the high speed train. The graph, below, shows that less than 1% of travelers use a train for intercity travel. Only air carriers have significant numbers of between city travelers.
CHSRA claims that the great majority of its riders will come from existing automobile traffic between San Francisco and Los Angeles. However, there appears to be no actual basis for this claim.
Source: Passenger-Miles of Travel by Mode: 2002. Source: RITA Bureau of Transportation statistics
Note that only 1% of intercity riders currently use rail. Somehow the CHSRA thinks that magically everyone is going to leave their cars and use the train to travel from LA to San Francisco.
That is not going to happen. The ridership of the HSR will be only a fraction of that predicted. Most of their riders will come from the airlines. Many travelers need their cars when they arrive.
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